Bitcoin has once again sold off, dipping back into a key support zone defined by the 78.6% and 88.7% Fibonacci retracements. This area is naturally important, as it often acts as a region where short-term bounces can occur. However, despite this support, the broader market structure continues to suggest downside pressure remains dominant.
Let’s break down what the charts are telling us.
Bitcoin Daily Chart: Wave B Appears Complete
For those following this analysis regularly, the current price action should come as no surprise. As discussed in previous updates, the micro structure already hinted at weakness, and the daily chart now reinforces that view.
The working thesis remains clear:
- Wave B has topped
- Bitcoin is now progressing into Wave C
- The roadmap is unfolding exactly as anticipated
Back in November, the expectation was for a three-wave corrective move into resistance, followed by a decline toward the $74,000–$75,000 region. While earlier projections suggested a possible low near $79,687 (based on circle wave C target calculations), ongoing micro-structure analysis increasingly points toward $75,000 as a more realistic downside target.
At this stage, we only have one red daily candle, and price is still consolidating above the 78.6% retracement at $84,130. More data is needed, but structurally, the decline remains intact.
Why the Weak B-Wave Still Makes Sense
A common question is whether Wave B should have been larger. Technically, B-waves can retrace anywhere between the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels, and Bitcoin did exactly that:
- Price tested this retracement zone
- Rejection occurred
- Decline resumed
Would a larger B-wave have looked “cleaner”? Possibly.
Was it necessary? No.
The structure remains valid, and the primary thesis still favors lower prices, especially with Wave Five dynamics in play.
Key Resistance Level: $87,262
If bulls want to regain control, this is the level they must reclaim.
- As long as Bitcoin stays below $87,262, the bias remains bearish
- A clean break above this level would force a reassessment
- Only then would scenarios such as an extended Circle Wave A or a failed Wave B become plausible
For now, there is no convincing bullish signal on the chart.
How Could Circle Wave C Unfold?
At the moment, the micro structure of Circle Wave C is still developing, but the most probable scenario looks like this:
- Wave 1 to the downside unfolded in three waves
- A small corrective Wave 2 followed
- Price is now likely moving through Wave 3
- A Wave 4 consolidation and final Wave 5 low may still be ahead
Because Wave 1 was a three-wave move, Wave 3 should also unfold in three waves to remain structurally consistent.
Could alternative counts exist? Yes.
Could Bitcoin form just one more low instead of two? Possibly.
However, based on current price action and previously discussed conditions, this remains the highest-probability path.
Short-Term Outlook: Downside Pressure Remains
On lower timeframes, such as the 15-minute chart, structures can shift quickly. But as things stand:
- The market remains under resistance
- Momentum favors further downside
- Any additional decline would likely confirm the start of Wave C of Wave 3
Until proven otherwise, the pressure remains to the downside.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is currently sitting at a technically significant area, but support alone does not equal a reversal. Without a decisive break above resistance, the Elliott Wave structure continues to favor lower prices in the coming sessions.
As always, markets are dynamic, and I’ll provide updates if the structure changes.
Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the chart do the talking.