Bitcoin Price Analysis: Resistance Test, Fed Rate Decision Ahead, and Q4 Outlook
Bitcoin is approaching a critical resistance level as the market prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. While risks of a major top are increasing, historical trends and Elliott Wave analysis suggest that Q4 2025 could still deliver profitable opportunities for traders and investors.
📊 Daily Chart: Resistance Zone in Focus
Bitcoin is currently testing a key resistance area around $117,454. This level is particularly important in the context of the B-wave structure we’ve been tracking.
•Key resistance levels: $117,454 → $120,400
•Support corridor to watch: $95K region (if a broader correction unfolds)
•Indicators in play: 55-week EMA and 1-year SMA as dynamic support levels
It’s worth noting that B-waves don’t always respect Fibonacci levels. If Bitcoin pushes decisively above this resistance without rejection, it could suggest we’re already in a move toward a new all-time high.
At the same time, the macro risk is high. Multiple Elliott Wave counts allow for the possibility that a major five-wave structure is complete. Still, probabilities currently lean toward at least one more push higher before a confirmed top.
🏦 Fed Interest Rate Decision: Why It Matters
The next FOMC meeting is just three days away, and markets are closely watching the outcome. Current probabilities suggest:
•93.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut
•6.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut
While a 25bps reduction is largely priced in, a surprise 50bps cut could spark short-term upside across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin has rallied both during rate hikes and rate cuts, defying the mainstream narrative. For example:
•Between 2015 and 2017, interest rates rose steadily from near zero to 1.5% — and Bitcoin surged.
•In late 2022 to early 2023, rates climbed again, but Elliott Wave analysis correctly pointed to a bull market.
👉 Key takeaway: while rate cuts can fuel short-term sentiment, they don’t guarantee a long-term bullish trend. Traders should remain cautious and rely on structure and support levels, not narratives alone.
📈 Short-Term Outlook: Higher Prices Still Possible
On the shorter time frame, Bitcoin spent the weekend consolidating sideways. Support levels remain unchanged:
•Immediate support zone: $113,500 – $115,000
•Critical level: break below $113,500 = likely B-wave top
•Upside targets: $117,660 → $118,500
If the price holds above support, we could still see at least one more high. A dip into the $113.5K–$115K support range would likely just confirm an extended wave four before another push upward.
🔮 Q4 Outlook: Seasonal Strength and Risks
•Historically, Bitcoin has never topped in October, making Q4 a strong seasonal period.
•With multiple rate cuts expected before year-end, liquidity conditions may improve, supporting high-risk assets.
•Still, traders must remain cautious: the macro top risk remains elevated, and any rejection near $118K–$120K could trigger deeper corrections.
⚡ Key Takeaways
1.Bitcoin is at a critical resistance zone near $117,454–$120,400.
2.The upcoming Fed decision could act as a catalyst, but the effect may be short-term.
3.Support at $113.5K–$115K remains crucial for the bullish case.
4.Both Elliott Wave scenarios (final wave up vs. corrective B-wave) remain valid.
5.Q4 seasonality and expected rate cuts suggest potential for further gains — but a larger top could form at any point.
✅ Bottom line: Bitcoin is walking a fine line. Short-term momentum still points higher, but resistance and macro risks demand caution. Whether this is the final leg of a B-wave correction or the start of a powerful wave five rally, the next few days — especially the Fed decision — will be pivotal.